Brig Brijesh Pandey (Retd)
When the internal rot gets unmanageable, the military regimes often surprise themselves by manufacturing a purpose that is neither real nor fathomable. Surely, Pakistan’s woes needed diversion of attention but definitely not a self-inflicted shock of the proportion that the terror strike of Pahalgam has generated. While the world in general and India in particular is busy deciphering the genesis of such a heinous act, targeting not only the soul of India but also the basic tenets of Islam and the fabric of Kashmiri society, which it mistakenly calls its jugular vein.
Why did Pakistan do what it did?
Experts and analysts of various hues will push innumerable logics, mostly the oft repeated ones and even those that do not exist. It will be good to examine the validity of some of the prominent ones. Firstly, the argument that it is a bid to address the domestic problems by resorting to an act that has been a “tool for unifying the nation.”
While this may have been true in past when India’s actions were a real or imaginary threat to Pakistan. People of Pakistan could be fooled with ease using the emotional rhetoric about India’s aggression at the Line of Control or bid to deny the diplomatic space. However, this time around, India had gone into an informal ceasefire and royally ignored whatever good, bad or ugly Pakistan was doing. In fact, India had deleted Pakistan from its strategic calculus.
Another argument relates the lost legitimacy of Pakistan over the Kashmir issue since abrogation of Article 370 of the Indian Constitution, and the resultant psychological drift in the psyche of the Kashmiri awaam which was visibly becoming oriented towards development, prosperity and peace. Pakistan Army which is currently plagued with the endemic caused by to the “Munir Virus” is surely facing an existential threat. Most of his predecessors who directly or indirectly ruled over Pakistan earlier, could create a perceptional need for taking over the mantle of rule. Pakistanis had huge respect for its Army and believes that if there is one organization that is referred, it was the Army.
Moreover, these leaders had an aura of professionalism and charisma. None of this is true in the instant case. After what happened post arrest of Imran Khan and dismissal of his government was worse than the dismember ship the country in 1971. Since these attacks on Army, whenever a “fauji” goes home on leave, the family members and the community remind him of this s shame. To top it all, inability of the Army to protect its own self in Pakistan occupied Jammu and Kashmir (PoJK), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Baluchistan does not lend it the credibility that people of Pakistan carried about Kashmir cause.
Third logic that is being projected is that Pakistan, as hither to fore believes that it can withstand India’s offensive or attack for a limited period of time by when the international pressure will be brought to bear on India to stop the war. By then, the Army Chief would have achieved its aim of normalizing separatism from various regions, stabilized the turbulence within Army and gained popularity among its rank and file.
He hopes that he would be able galvanize the fundamentalist forces within the country as well as secure funding from China, Turkey and Arab nations. Even the wishful thinking that he harboured about Kashmiris rising in support of Pakistan or communal violence triggering in rest of India. Unfortunately for General Munir, none of these fantasies are getting fructified and the history is refusing to repeat itself. International opinion is absolutely anti-Pakistan, the support for India is pouring and none of the countries have suggested that India should exercise restraint. Asem Munir has been so blinded with his power struggle that he failed to see the monumental rose of India.
Where did Pakistan go wrong?
Pakistan failed to appreciate the geo-strategic realities and kept fooling itself with the past glories of using such measures to meet its domestic ends. It also got tricked about India’s response to such an act. It thought that India will be happy undertaking surgical strike or air raid missions like what happened post Uri and Pulwama incidents. It also misjudged the political will and consensus building up post the incident.
The anti-Pakistan and anti-terrorist protests that Kashmir saw was unprecedented and never heard before. Moreover, the manner of execution of the Pahalgam genocide was so awful and dastardly that it is bound to force even supporters of separatism to think differently. Pronouncing and targeting Hindus has further complicated the erstwhile nature of violence seen before.
As the threads of the plot are getting revealed, it is getting evident that the terrorist used the very eco system of tourism to execute their plans. Tourism does not only signify the economic gains; it also is integrated with the hospitality and the thoughts of “atithi devo bhav.” All these realities put together, indicate that Pakistan’s gamble was a produce of insane and irrational minds.
How is India Likely to Respond?
It is often said that every war or conflict is an investment to buy long term peace. Far beyond the Kinetic punishment or war, it’s an opportunity that Pakistan has given to India on a plate. Pakistan is already facing a tertiary stretch in terms of Baluchistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Taliban, and facing the wrath of mismanaged economy.
In case India activated the borders, it becomes the fourth stretch. Adding on to the woes of Pakistan, Indian Navy might be employed to create the fifth stretch. In any case, Pakistan Navy is no match of Indian Navy. Even if India simply maintains these multiple stretches for a month, Pakistan will start crumbling. Hence, India can achieve its goals without even launching a major offensive.
Thanks to Chinese aggressions in Galvan, Indian military has invested hugely in border infrastructure, reorganizing the forces, rebalancing and restructuring that all the three services put together, it has become a force to reckon with. Unlike Pakistan, India’s military leadership, morale and ethicality of the cause are on strong footing.
While the political leaders of Pakistan are in jail or enslaved to military, India has a leader of repute in Modi. Let alone the national consensus, he has successfully mobilized the international opinion favorably.
Wars are fought through economic strength. Given the economic asymmetry between the two countries, it unimaginable what Pakistan will look like after first few days of war.
Poverty, hunger and lack of social resources are galore. It is said that Pakistan has only few days of oil reserves, its ammunition stockpile is depleted and foreign exchange is almost nil. The erstwhile donors like China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and many more have closed the taps.
Even the terror funds have been choked by FATF. Due to global recession, the inflow of remittances has diminished. Sale of natural resources of Baluchistan has almost been stopped. On the other hand, India’s economy is so strong that it can afford mobilization, forward posturing, maneuvers and offensive for as long as it takes to achieve its objectives. If this gets augmented by actions of BLA, TTP and other separatist forces, Pakistan will not need an Indian Offensive before it implodes or gets fragmented.
WRITER OF THIS ARTICLE: Brig Brijesh Pandey (Retd) is an Army veteran who pioneered the inception and growth of Information Warfare and served in J&K for over 15 years.
