‘Winners to be up for grabs as stage set for horsetrading’
Arun Jasrotia
Jammu:TDD, As Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) awaits the results of its first assembly elections since the abrogation of Article 370, political analysts are predicting a hung assembly with independent candidates potentially playing a crucial role in government formation.
The counting of votes, scheduled for October 8, 2024, marks the culmination of a highly anticipated electoral process that took place after a decade-long hiatus.
The elections, held in the shadow of significant constitutional changes, have seen a fierce contest between National and regional parties. The Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP), National Conference (NC) – Congress Party, and People’s Democratic Party (PDP) are all vying for power, with each claiming they will form the next government. However, the emergence of a substantial number of independent candidates have added an unpredictable element to the political landscape.
The political observers suggest that 10 – 11 independent candidates from the Jammu and Kashmir alone could win seats. Many of these candidates were formerly associated with established parties but chose to contest independently after being denied tickets.
In Kashmir, the situation is equally complex, with parties like the Apni Party, AIP, Jammat- e- Islami, Jammu and Kashmir People’s Conference, and Democratic Progressive Azad Party presenting additional challenges to the traditional powerhouses.
The role of these independents becomes even more critical considering the new provision allowing for five nominated members of the legislative assembly (MLAs). These nominated members, a first for J&K, will be appointed by the Lieutenant Governor on the advice of the Home Ministry, regardless of which party forms the government. This provision gives the BJP a slight advantage, as these nominated members will have the same legislative powers as elected MLAs.
Former Chief Minister and National Conference President Farooq Abdullah has categorically ruled out any alliance with the BJP, stating that a vote for NC was a direct rejection of BJP’s policies. Meanwhile, PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti has expressed readiness to support any “secular government” to keep the BJP out of power, emphasizing that no secular government can be formed without PDP’s support.
The BJP, on its part, has summoned its senior leaders to Delhi to hold deliberation regarding government formation, and emerging political situation in J&K. The party is reportedly in touch with independent candidates, hoping to secure their support in case of a hung assembly.
Meanwhile, a senior journalist, and political analyst, Nishikant Khajuria believes that no single party will reach the magic number required to form a government.
Referring to the five independent candidates, he anticipates that each of these independent candidates from Jammu and Kashmir regions could win, potentially holding the key to government formation.
Khajuria suggests that the National Conference might emerge as the single largest party and could form a government with the support of alliance partners and independents.
The election has also seen its share of political drama, with former BJP leaders like Pawan Khajuria contesting as independents after being denied party tickets. Khajuria, who contested from Udhampur East, has stated that he will consult with the public before deciding which side to support in the post-election.
Peerzada Ashiq, senior journalist from Kashmir, and political analyst, has provides a comprehensive assessment of the current political landscape in Jammu and Kashmir.
According to Peerzada, the region’s political scenario is characterized by significant complexity and fragmentation, with no single party likely to secure an outright majority in the Assembly election.
“Any party that manages to secure more than 30 seats would find it considerably easier to form a government. However, he points out that if a party’s seat count falls between 25 and 30, the task of forming a government in Jammu and Kashmir would become exceedingly challenging, not possible,” he observes.
He further offers a nuanced perspective on the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) prospects in the region.
While anticipating that the BJP might replicate its previous performance by winning a majority of seats in the Jammu division, he believes it’s improbable for the party to form a government on its own in Jammu and Kashmir.
The critical factor, according to Ashiq, is the BJP’s struggle to secure seats in the Kashmir Valley. Without representation from Kashmir, he asserts that it would be unfeasible for the BJP to establish a government in the union territory.
He suggests that the National Conference (NC) could find itself in a favourable position if it manages to secure more than 30 seats, which would significantly ease its path to government formation. However, he also highlights the growing influence of smaller parties and independent candidates, which are emerging as formidable challengers to the traditional powerhouses like the NC, Congress, and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). These smaller entities include the Apni Party led by Altaf Bukhari, the J&K People’s Conference under Sajjad Gani Lone, the AIP headed by Er Rashid, Jamaat-e-Islami, and the Democratic Progressive Azad Party led by Ghulam Nabi Azad.
He suggests that independent candidates could potentially emerge as game-changers in the electoral landscape, further complicating the political arithmetic. This assessment underscores the fluid and unpredictable nature of the region’s politics, where traditional calculations may be upended by the performance of independents and smaller parties.
He firmly believes that no single party is likely to achieve a clear majority in the Assembly elections. This scenario suggests that post-election alliance formations and negotiations will play a crucial role in determining the future government of Jammu and Kashmir, making the political process in the region both intricate and unpredictable.
As the countdown to October 8 begins, all eyes are on the independent candidates who could ultimately decide the political fate of Jammu and Kashmir. The outcome of these elections will not only determine the region’s immediate political future but also set the tone for its governance in the post-Article 370 era.
Since the abrogation of Articles 370 and 35A in August 2019, which led to the division of Jammu and Kashmir into two Union Territories—Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh—this assembly election is historic. After a delimitation process, the number of Assembly seats in the region grew from 83 to 90, excluding those for Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. The earlier assembly election in J&K took place in 2014.(TDD)
