With numerical advantage in the Assembly, National Conference alliance poised to win three seats; BJP expected to secure one
Jaan Mohammed
Jammu: DD، Political activity in Jammu and Kashmir has intensified ahead of the Rajya Sabha elections scheduled for October 24. With four vacant seats to be filled after more than three years, the National Conference–Congress alliance under the INDIA bloc holds a clear numerical edge in the Legislative Assembly, while the BJP is eyeing one seat through its vote base and possible cross-support.
The Election Commission has announced that elections for Jammu and Kashmir’s four vacant Rajya Sabha seats will be held on October 24. These seats have remained vacant since February 2021, when the erstwhile state was under President’s Rule and had no functioning Legislative Assembly to conduct the election.
Now that the 2024 Assembly has been constituted, voting will take place through the MLAs, as Rajya Sabha representatives are elected indirectly by members of the state legislature. Consequently, the relative strength of political parties in the Assembly will be decisive in determining the outcome.
As per the 2024 Assembly results, the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (JKNC) holds 42 seats, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) 29, the Indian National Congress (INC) 6, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) 3, and smaller parties and independents share a handful of others. The INDIA bloc, consisting mainly of JKNC and Congress, commands a clear majority.
Political observers believe this numerical advantage will likely translate into three of the four Rajya Sabha seats going to the INDIA bloc, while the BJP is expected to retain one seat. Independent MLAs and minor party votes could, however, slightly influence the final equation.
Previously, Jammu and Kashmir was represented in the Rajya Sabha by Mir Mohammad Fayaz and Nazir Ahmad Laway of the PDP, Ghulam Nabi Azad of the Congress, and Shamsher Singh of the BJP. All four seats have remained vacant since their terms ended.
Sources indicate that while the Congress initially sought a safe seat in the upcoming Rajya Sabha polls, it later withdrew its claim in favour of the National Conference to maintain alliance harmony. The BJP, meanwhile, is strategizing to consolidate its vote share and possibly benefit from cross-voting.
Political analysts note that the October 24 Rajya Sabha polls will serve as the first major political test for the newly elected Jammu and Kashmir Assembly — and may also shape the evolving balance between the Union and the UT’s regional leadership in the months ahead.DD
