Russia’s Declining Influence, Iran severed influence almost entirely purged after Assad’s fall
Diplomat Foreign Desk
Damascus: Damascus (Syria) is no longer a ghost town for foreign dignitaries as it has become a hub of intense regional activity, following the year of consulates and visits the year 2025 has been defined by a rapid dismantling of the “Pariah State” status that Syria held for over a decade.
The Arab League has moved from hesitant acceptance to full engagement as President Ahmed Al Sharaa has undertaken over 20 foreign visits in 2025, visiting key power brokers like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Turkey, and Qatar.
Western Pivot: In a stunning reversal, both the United States and United Kingdom de-listed the lead governing faction, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), as a terrorist organization in 2025. This move paved the way for the repeal of the Caesar Act sanctions in December 2025, a decision President Trump championed to facilitate reconstruction.
Embassies Reopens: A “flag-raising” marathon occurred throughout the year. Turkey, Germany, Spain, and Italy have all reopened their missions in Damascus, signaling a European desire to stabilize the region and manage migration flows.
Israeli Shadow: Occupation and Aggression While Syria’s relations with the West and the Arab world have thawed, its border with Israel remains the country’s most volatile “bleeding edge.”
Crises in Buffer Zone: Immediately following Assad’s fall, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) moved into the 1974 demilitarized buffer zone, citing the need to prevent a “security vacuum.”
By late 2025, this has evolved into a semi-permanent occupation, with Israel building new outposts and military infrastructure within previously neutral territory.
Air strikes and Incursions: Tensions reached a fever pitch in November and December 2025. Israeli air strikes have targeted Syrian military positions in Beit Jinn and Quneitra, with Israel claiming it is “thwarting jihadist entrenchment.” Damascus has officially condemned these acts as “war crimes” at the UN Security Council.
Golan Standoff: President Sharaa has maintained a firm line i.e., there will be no normalization or security pact with Israel until a full withdrawal from the occupied Golan Heights is achieved.
Domestic Fragility: The “Operation Hawkeye” Era Internally, the transitional government is struggling to maintain a monopoly on force.
New Syria is a patchwork of overlapping authorities – Counter-Terrorism: On December 19, 2025, the U.S. launched “Operation Hawkeye Strike,” hitting over 70 ISIS targets in central Syria.
Unlike previous years, this operation was conducted in full coordination with the Sharaa government, symbolizing a new era of military partnership between Washington and Damascus. The Kurdish Strained Peace: The northeast remains under the control of the Kurdish-led SDF. While a ceasefire was signed in October 2025, talks to integrate Kurdish forces into a unified Syrian Army have stalled, with Turkey threatening military intervention if a “terror corridor” is established.
Sectarian Tensions: Despite the government’s push for inclusivity, 2025 was marred by outbreaks of violence against Alawite and Druze minorities. The government began the first “accountability trials” in December to prosecute those responsible for coastal massacres earlier in the year.
The Geopolitical Balance Sheet (December 2025) Country / Entity Current Status of Relation Key Issue United States Improving Counter -terrorism (ISIS) and reconstruction. Israel Hostile Military occupation of the buffer zone and Golan.
Turkey Strategic Partner Security in the north and return of refugees. Russia Declining Influence Maintains small footprint at Tartus / Hmeimim bases.
Iran severed influence almost entirely after Assad’s fall. The situation in Syria remains a race between reconstruction and relapse. While the international community has largely “turned the page” on the Assad era, the physical presence of Israeli troops in the south and ISIS cells in the desert reminds the world that Syria’s peace is still written on very thin glass.
